Market Analysis
When does Colorado Springs move the most homes?
Market velocity is how many homes actually change hands in a year. It is not random: it tracks affordability almost perfectly. Here is every year since 2006, charted against the median payment as a share of income, and what it would take to move like that again.
19,258
peak sales, 2020 (at 27.7% of income)
13,347
2025 sales · down 31% from peak
42%
today's payment vs income ($3,200/mo)
The finding: velocity peaks when the median payment sits near 27.7% of income (2020: 19,258 sales). Once affordability crossed into the high-30s and 40s, velocity fell off a cliff and flattened near 13,347. The affordability wall is costing Colorado Springs roughly 5,911 sales a year - about a third of its velocity. The 28% affordability line is not a lender's rule of thumb here; it is empirically where this market moves the most homes.
Where the market is headed
Buyer / seller balance now
Buyer-Favoring
Three-pillar score -3 · 96.4% sale-to-list · 5.5 mo supply.
Transactions +1
Pricing & supply +0
Affordability -4
FPVI · our leading price signal
95.5%
Future Property Value Index: homes under contract now are priced about 4.5% below their original list, vs closings currently landing at 96.4%. Since today's pendings are tomorrow's closings, that points to sale-to-list softening about 0.9 points over the next 4 to 6 weeks.
Backtested: across 7.0 months of daily tracking, FPVI has called the direction of the next move in sale-to-list about 89% of the time, at roughly a 4-week lead.
2026 velocity forecast
13,250
10,227 closings through September, tracking toward about 13,250 for the year. On the chart, orange is the 1 that have closed since our September projection, filling into the red that projection still has left. 2025 finished at 13,347.
Velocity vs affordability, 2006 to today
Bars: closings per year (left axis, velocity). Line: median payment as a share of income (right axis, affordability). When the line stays low, the bars climb; when it spikes, they collapse. On 2026: navy is actual closings through our September projection, orange is what has closed since (the forecast proving out), and red is the projection still outstanding. The orange grows and the red shrinks as the year fills in. Source: Pikes Peak MLS closings + median household income.
2026 forecast: Through September, 2026 has logged 10,227 closings. At the region's typical seasonal pace, the year projects to about 13,250, about even with 2025's 13,347. Our September call was about 13,249; today's pace is running in line with that.
What would restore peak velocity
Peak velocity (2020) happened at 27.7% of income. At today's 7.4% rate and $90,778 median income, hitting that again takes one of:
$293,370
median price (36% below today's $460,000)
3.07%
mortgage rate (from today's 7.4%)
Hit either and velocity should climb back toward the 19,258 range - roughly 44% above today. Wages closing the gap is the third, slower lever.
Every year
| Year | Closings | Median | Rate | Payment | % of income |
|---|
| 2026 (partial) |
10,836 |
$460,000 |
6.51% |
$2,952 |
39.0% |
| 2025 |
13,347 |
$465,000 |
6.6% |
$3,008 |
39.8% |
| 2024 |
13,141 |
$463,000 |
6.74% |
$3,034 |
40.1% |
| 2023 |
13,463 |
$450,000 |
6.79% |
$2,969 |
40.1% |
| 2022 |
12,510 |
$455,000 |
5.33% |
$2,613 |
38.1% |
| 2021 |
16,544 |
$420,000 |
2.96% |
$1,903 |
28.9% |
| 2020 |
19,258 |
$358,000 |
3.11% |
$1,672 |
27.7% |
| 2019 |
17,939 |
$317,000 |
3.94% |
$1,628 |
26.9% |
| 2018 |
17,885 |
$296,000 |
4.54% |
$1,625 |
28.7% |
| 2017 |
18,684 |
$268,000 |
3.99% |
$1,408 |
25.9% |
| 2016 |
17,308 |
$245,472 |
3.65% |
$1,259 |
23.8% |
| 2015 |
15,086 |
$228,000 |
3.85% |
$1,203 |
24.0% |
| 2014 |
12,588 |
$215,000 |
4.17% |
$1,179 |
23.9% |
| 2013 |
11,946 |
$209,000 |
3.98% |
$1,130 |
23.8% |
| 2012 |
9,953 |
$195,000 |
3.66% |
$1,032 |
22.4% |
| 2011 |
9,212 |
$181,788 |
4.46% |
$1,047 |
22.9% |
| 2010 |
9,195 |
$186,500 |
4.69% |
$1,094 |
25.5% |
| 2009 |
9,434 |
$184,000 |
5.04% |
$1,117 |
24.1% |
| 2008 |
9,122 |
$196,000 |
6.04% |
$1,290 |
26.2% |
| 2007 |
11,270 |
$206,000 |
6.34% |
$1,385 |
30.1% |
| 2006 |
13,666 |
$206,000 |
6.41% |
$1,393 |
31.4% |
Methodology. Velocity = residential closings per year, Pikes Peak MLS (elevateMLS), full regional footprint, land and commercial excluded; 2025 is the last full year and the current year is partial. Affordability = the monthly payment on that year's median-priced home as a share of that year's median household income, modeled at 10% down, El Paso County's ~0.48% effective property tax, and $1,800/yr insurance, using each year's average 30-year rate. The 28% line is the standard front-end affordability threshold. "What would restore peak velocity" solves for the price or rate that returns today's payment-to-income to the peak year's level. The current-year forecast is a seasonal run-rate: closings through the last complete month, scaled up by the share of a typical year's closings that those months carry, averaged over the last ten full years. It is a projection, not a guarantee, and the most recent month can still be filling in as late closings post. FPVI (median list-to-original-list on pending and under-contract homes) and the three-pillar buyer/seller state use the same methodology as the analytics dashboard. The FPVI claim is backtested against what actually prints: using 7.0 months of daily FPVI and sale-to-list readings, FPVI's direction has led the sale-to-list ratio by about 4 weeks and called the next move correctly roughly 89% of the time. It is early evidence from one softening cycle, strengthening as the daily series grows, and FPVI is a directional lead, not a precise point forecast of the exact ratio. Source and analysis: Rob Thompson, Realtor, Iconic Colorado Properties. Updated October 24, 2026.
